Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

要旨

Abstract Clarifying the influences of paleoclimate changes on the disjunct distribution formation of plants allows a historical and mechanical understanding of current vegetation and biodiversity. This study investigated the influences of paleoclimate changes on the present disjunct distribution formation of Pinus koraiensis (Korean pine) using species distribution modeling. A species distribution model (SDM) was built using maximum entropy principle algorithms (MaxEnt), data from 152 occurrences of the species, and four bioclimatic variables at 2.5 arcminute (approximately 5 km) spatial resolution. The simulation revealed the excellent fit of the MaxEnt model performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.922 and continuous Boyce index (BCI) value of 0.925 with fivefold cross-validation. The most important climatic factor was the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Suitable habitats for the species ranged between − 30.1 and − 4.1 °C. Projected suitable habitats under the Last Glacial Maximum (approximately 22,000 years ago [ka BP]: LGM) period showed wide distributions in eastern China, the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, and the Japanese Archipelago. After the mid-Holocene (approximately 6 ka BP), the suitable habitats expanded northwards in continental regions and retreated from both north and southwest of Japan. This eventually formed disjunct suitable habitats in central Japan. An increase in temperature after the LGM period caused the migration of P. koraiensis toward new, suitable habitats in continental Northeast Asia, while species in the Japanese Archipelago retreated, forming the present disjunct distributions.

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